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UAE economy growth continues IMF forecasts non-hydrocarbon output to strengthen this year • By Saifur Rahman, Business Editor • Published: 00:00 May 17, 2012 Dubai: The UAEs GDP is estimated to have grown 4.9 per cent last year, said the latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), adding that the UAE economy continues to recover from the fallout of the global downturn. "The recovery of the economy is continuing despite the uncertain global economic environment. High oil prices and increased production, strong growth in Asia, and the UAEs perceived safe haven status in the context of the regional turmoil contributed to an estimated real GDP growth of 4.9 per cent in 2011," IMF said in its latest Article IV consultation with the UAE. "Despite the continued weakness of the construction and real estate sectors in the wake of the 2009 crisis, real non-hydrocarbon growth picked up to an estimated 2.7 per cent last year, supported by trade, logistics, and tourism." For 2012, the IMF projects oil production to be flat, whereas non-oil growth is expected to strengthen further to 3.5 per cent. "Inflation remained low at 0.9 per cent in 2011, mainly due to a continuing decline in housing rents, and price pressures are expected to remain subdued this year," it said. Matthew Green, head of Research and Consultancy, UAE at CB Richard Ellis, said: "It is hoped that the positive economic growth forecast for 2012 will provide a stimulus for an improvement in the overall business environment, which could have a knock-on impact for the commercial real estate sector in particular. However, with new stock entering the market, lease rates are likely to remain broadly unchanged, with current rents below 2005 levels." Debt restructuring of some government-related entities (GRE), with debt estimated at $30 billion (Dh110.19 billion) maturing this year, remains a challenge, the IMF said. "GRE indebtedness, refinancing needs and reliance on foreign funding remain high, with about $30 billion GRE debt maturing this year and significant amount of debt falling due in 2014-15," the IMF said. The IMF noted the progress made in restructuring and managing the debt of GREs, but stressed the need for further efforts to mitigate the fiscal risks posed by these entities. "The GREs are still faced with high refinancing needs and are reliant on foreign funding," it said. Further deleveraging In this context, the IMF encouraged further deleveraging and strengthening of impaired GRE balance sheets, increased transparency, and improvements in corporate governance at GREs. Despite the accommodative monetary stance under the peg to the US dollar, lending to the private sector has remained sluggish as excess capacity in the real estate sector and the debt overhang still limit lending opportunities, it said. The banking sector has remained well-capitalised and profitable, despite a continued rise in non-performing loans and higher provisioning. The IMF welcomed the continued economic recovery and favourable near term outlook, but noted "downside risks from the uncertain global environment and regional geopolitical tensions". Going forward, the IMF encouraged UAE authorities to continue their efforts to sustain growth and diversify the economy, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability. The IMF regarded the fiscal stance as appropriately focused on a gradual consolidation to unwind the large fiscal stimulus undertaken in response to the 2009 downturn without undermining the economic recovery. "They [IMF directors] particularly welcomed the consolidation plans in Dubai, which will help improve the emirates debt sustainability in the face of contingent liabilities related to government related entities (GRE) and the still weak real estate market," it said. Noting the recent federal salary hike and planned increases in development spending in Abu Dhabi, the IMF emphasised the importance of managing the composition of public expenditure carefully. It commended authorities efforts to strengthen the coordination of fiscal policies between the federal and emirate governments. UAE exposed to sinking Eurozone Local markets gets a catalyst with arabtec being included on msci list • By Kevin Scott, Staff Reporter • Published: 00:00 May 17, 2012 Dubai: Amid a lack of local catalysts heading into the traditionally quiet summer months, UAE equity markets have been left vulnerable to the economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) General Index has lost more than 12 per cent since April 24 and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) is down 1.5 per cent in the same period. The euro hit a fresh four-month low against the dollar yesterday amid fears debt-ravaged Greece could be forced to leave the single currency. As a result, nervous investors are removing their cash from risky equities and volumes have plunged in the UAE after a strong start to the year. "I think the summer lull is already upon us; I see very few regional catalysts to a summer rally, but we do recognise that any significantly positive developments in the Eurozone will help slow down the UAE markets decline and possibly kick-start the next upward leg of the rally," said Sleiman Abu Al Hosn, assistant fund manager at Al Masah Capital. "Besides that and with regards to liquidity, I think the economic recovery that is expected to continue in the UAE will contribute to a slow but steady hike in volumes in the long-term, and with the recovery, we should see local investor appetite pick up and drive IPO [initial public offering] activity, which will effectively boost trading volumes as well." The only remaining catalyst on the horizon is MSCIs decision on whether to upgrade the UAE and Qatar to emerging markets status. The index compiler added Dubai-builder Arabtec to its frontier markets gauge yesterday, just weeks before announcing the outcome of its latest classification review. Both countries have been denied an upgrade on numerous occasions in recent years and, in any instance, some analysts believe MSCI is not the answer to all their problems. Investment stories "The UAEs potential inclusion in the MSCI index could help on the volume side," said Sebastian Henin, portfolio manager at The National Investor in Abu Dhabi. "But due to the expected size of the country in the MSCI emerging market index, it will not be a game changer. Foreign investors could easily ignore the market in their allocation. "If you want to lure more investors and therefore more volume, you need to offer interesting investment stories. "Look at what happened in Saudi Arabia during the first quarter, where volumes were back to 2008 levels. "A cocktail of earnings growth, better visibility on the macro and micro side and appealing valuations have fuelled the movement. "The UAE is not too far down the road. In Dubai, most sectors from hospitality to transport are performing extremely well. In Abu Dhabi, there is a strong commitment from the government to revive some major projects. "At one point in time, this revival will give some comfort to retail investors to get back into the market." In the meantime, however, macro-economic complications in the Eurozone are dominating investor sentiment across global markets. Tokyos Nikkei index closed down more than one per cent yesterday, while Hong Kongs Hang Seng and South Koreas Kospi lost about three per cent. Oil prices also tumbled. "The Eurozone story probably contributed negatively to the market performance, as elsewhere in the world," Henin said. "But it is more sentiment driven and the impact of the ongoing European crisis for the UAE economy has been limited so far. "The oil price fall, which has lost more than 10 per cent in the recent days, has contributed to this movement. "At the same time, UAE markets had witnessed a strong rally during the first quarter. Some investors have been encouraged to book some profits when they witnessed the poor international news flow." Further compounding the local uncertainty is fresh concern over transparency levels in the UAE with Arabtec in particular coming under the spotlight on speculation over Aabar Investments stake in the company. Main driver "It will be important to see how ESCA treats these developments regarding Arabtec and whether they introduce rules to protect minorities including retail investors," said Anastasios Dalgiannakis, institutional trading manager at Mubasher Financial Services. "Arabtec was the main driver of the indexs rally in the first quarter, but it has also contributed to the recent correction. "There are questions around corporate governance and ESCA needs to take this opportunity to formulate new regulations. "The main catalyst is the MSCI announcement next month. In theory, Dubai should be eligible this time around for an upgrade but foreign investors remain ambivalent about the outcome. "Local indices have effectively been influenced by their correlation with international markets while foreign interest also remains muted." UAE, New South Wales ties discussed 17 May 2012 ABU DHABI - Ways to promote trade and investment relations between the UAE and Australia and to encourage joint development projects on Wednesday were discussed by Minister of Foreign Trade Shaikha Lubna Al Qasimi and New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell. Non-oil trade between the UAE and Australia grew by 7.2 per cent to reach $2.2 billion in 2010, and only during the first ten months of 2011 grew by 21 per cent to reach also $2.2 billion, according to Shaikha Lubna in remarks at the meeting which was attended by the Australian ambassador to the UAE Pablo Kang, assistant undersecretary for foreign trade Juma Al Kait and other officials. She urged Australian investors to tap opportunities provided by the UAE’s economy and its support for small and medium enterprises. Invest AD, Paladin private equity venture Team identifies strong pipeline deal in Mena region and Turkey • Staff Report • Published: 00:00 May 15, 2012 Abu Dhabi: US private investment company Paladin Capital Group and Abu Dhabi-based investment company Invest AD have established a private equity joint venture that will channel investments into the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region and Turkey. The joint venture between Paladin Capital (Middle East) Limited, a company registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, and Invest AD, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Council — a leading sovereign wealth fund — plans to launch a $100 million (Dh367.21 million) fund to tap growing global investor interest in new emerging markets growth opportunities. The joint investment team has identified a strong pipeline deal in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) and Turkey, a region that is expected to see GDP growth of 4.7 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2013. "Small-and medium-sized companies are the backbone of the regions economy, and they are hungry for capital to expand, operationally and geographically, in the process creating jobs and increasing profits," said Michael Steed, Founder and Managing Partner of Paladin Capital Group and Chairman of Paladin Capital (Middle East) Limited "Companies in the Mena region are looking for stable and respected partners to help them achieve their ambitions, not just with capital, but with expertise and international business networks," said Invest ADs Chief Executive Officer, Nazem Fawaz Al Qudsi. Aabar says stake in Arabtec 20.76 Aabar Investments holds a 20.76 per cent stake in Arabtec Holding, further consolidating its influence over the company • Gulf News • Published: 00:00 May 15, 2012 Aabar Investments holds a 20.76 per cent stake in Arabtec Holding, further consolidating its influence over the company. Arabtec, in a statement posted on the Dubai bourse website yesterday, said Aabar and its units totally held a 20.76 per cent stake in the company as on May 10, denying recent media reports that the Abu Dhabi-based firm owned a 53 per cent stake in the construction firm. Arabtec earlier this month named Aabar chairman Kadem Abdullah Kadem Butti Al Qubaisi as its new chairman, triggering market speculation that the Abu Dhabi company held a much bigger stake in Arabtec than earlier disclosed. Tamdeen Real Estate Kuwaits Tamdeen Real Estate Co. plans to embark next year on a new real estate project at a total cost of 70 million Kuwaiti dinars ($251.2 million), Kuwait-based Al Watan daily reported yesterday citing an executive. The project, to be located in Al Manshar area, will be the countrys largest multi-use development as it will include a commercial complex, hotel, conference centre, offices and large parking lots, Mohammed Al Marzouq, the companys chairman and managing director, said according to the paper. Union Properties Union Properties posted a 73 per cent decline in first-quarter profit to Dh22.4 million, according to a statement to the Dubai bourse yesterday. EFG-Hermes Holding SAE estimate was for a profit of Dh50 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. NBAD National Bank of Abu Dhabi expects Gulf Cooperation Council bond offerings in 2012 to be between $30 billion and $35 billion, Fawaz Abusneineh, head of debt capital markets at the lender, said in an interview. The bank expects to manage two United Arab Emirates bond sales before summer, he said. Telecom Egypt State-owned Telecom Egypt, the only provider of fixed-line services in the country, posted a 1.7 per cent rise in first-quarter net profit yesterday, as the telco cut costs and added broadband subscribers. Its net profit in the three months ended March 31 amounted to 912 million Egyptian pounds ($151 million), up from 897 million pounds in the year earlier period, it said. Damas Shares in regional jewelry retailer Damas will be delisted from the Nasdaq Dubai next month as part of the companys takeover by Qatars Mannai Corporation and investment funds managed by Egypt-based EFG Hermes. The bidders have received acceptance of their offer of $0.45 per Damas share from holders of 88.86 per cent of the companys issued share capital, according to a statement on Sunday. Qatar Petroleum Qatar Petroleum is investing in an Egyptian refinery, the Qatari oil minister said. The company expects results of the Dukhan field redevelopment study by the end of the year, Mohammad Al Sada said in Doha. Yemen LNG Yemen LNG, whose biggest shareholder is Total SA, is repairing new damage caused by an explosion on a natural gas pipeline that had been shut down since a bomb blast last month, a company official said. The pipeline was bombed at midnight in Gazan, a hotbed of Al Qaida militants in the east of the country, said the official, who declined to be identified, citing company policy. The pipeline normally supplies a liquefied natural gas facility on the Indian Ocean port of Balhaf, he said. The 38-inch gas pipeline had been shut and under repair since a similar explosion on the network on April 26, he said. Total owns a 40 per cent stake in Yemen LNG. Other shareholders include Hunt Oil Co., Yemen Gas Co, SK Innovation Co., Korea Gas Corp., Hyundai Corp. and Yemens General Authority for Social Security and Pensions. Key UAE laws by year-end Abdul Basit / 15 May 2012 The UAE is expected to finalise an insolvency and bankruptcy law by the end of 2012, Minister of Justice Dr Hadif bin Jowan Al Dhahiri said at the Global Policy Conference in Dubai on Monday. “It is in the final stages, but it has to get the approval of other government entities. We are still in discussions with the Ministry of Finance about the current draft,” Al Dhahiri told reporters on the sidelines of the conference. He hopes that it would be ready by the end of this year. Earlier, in his address to the two-day conference on financial restructuring and bankruptcy, the minister said there is a set of legislation that is on its way to the final approval and issuance through constitutional channels in the country. “The departments and the relevant committees in the Ministry of Justice are currently examining a range of important bills, including a draft federal law on foreign investment, a draft federal law on small and medium enterprises, the draft federal law on arbitration in civil and commercial transactions, and the draft federal law on bankruptcy and restructuring,” he said. Al Dhahiri also mentioned that amendments in some existing laws are also under discussion. He thanked the Dubai Economic Council, or DEC, for hosting the conference, stressing that the bankruptcy law is the most important commercial law. “It will restore the rights of all parties. The Government of the UAE is keen to strengthen and enhance the regulatory framework to sustain economic development,” he said. Earlier, DEC Secretary-General Hani Al Hamli said that a clear law is necessary to protect companies and investors in the UAE. It will help to improve the investment climate in the country, Al Hamli said. He praised the strategic direction adopted by the UAE government in the presentation of new draft laws on the various activities of public and private sectors as a way of civilised and advanced step in the way of transparency and the rule of law in economic life. Talking about the reality of financial restructuring and bankruptcy in the GCC countries, Hamli noted that the countries of the region still lack an effective legislation for financial restructuring and bankruptcy, which affected — along with other factors — on the attractiveness of the investment environment in the region, and therefore missed opportunities for growth.

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